TMO September, 10th 

 Let’s move on to the scope of the last 96 hours in the Theater of Military Operations in Ukraine. The crowd of opinionators, some of them pseudo-communists, went from aspirants to the Compulsory Military Service, to Zhukov’s teacher in person. I saw on Twitter, the most brewing micro-network that exists on the planet, and that generates a lot of problems, the proto-Soviets switching to the white army in less than 1/4 bottle of Vodka. They have already shot half of the incompetent Russian generals, demoted commanders and punished others. They even removed the Minister of Defense, who, according to them, only serves to organize marches and strikes. 

Did the Ukrainians win the war, how tactless of these people, I will leave you today’s map on military activity, with some questions: 

How come those red dots you see on the map? 

How much does the Ukrainian advance amount to? 

What does this advance mean? 

For what and why that advance? 

Did nobody read that I myself said it here, published and all, that they should do what they are doing now, but I said it on August 31? 

You think I’m a psychic? I’m not, I’m an analyst. And I think I am a good one. 

We will answer this and other interesting questions.  

Don’t believe it, have arrived the critics, skeptics and generals without troops, like this one, who says he is a “better communist than me”: 

Tzihué Cisneros Pérez. “…It is very interesting this conflict, despite the power that the Russians have they are allowing the Ukrainians to recover ground and they are asking for ammunition from North Korea and drones from Iran. On the other hand, the Russians are making three times as much money as a year ago but are still losing ground in Ukraine. Russian precision technology is top of the line and despite all the blows they have put on the Ukronazis it doesn’t seem to affect them and they continue to send troops and materiel of all kinds. If the plan is to delude and wear down the Ukrainians, Creepanians and British while still making money to crush them at the height of winter, then just wait a couple of months, but if not then it seems Russia doesn’t care much about losing the war…” (went off the air for burning his tongue and being disrespectful). 

About the supposed Russian ammunition they don’t have and asked North Korea for, it comes officially from the CIA, and this “better-than-me communist”, echoes that. About that making money, he got it from this news: (I said I wouldn’t give news, I’m just contextualizing and explaining the rationale for the alienation): 

….Russia triples current account surplus through August. Russia’s current account balance of payments had a surplus between January and August of $183.1 billion, nearly triple the same period in 2021, despite unprecedented sanctions imposed on the country by the West over its military campaign in Ukraine, according to the Central Bank. 

The current account surplus comes despite 11,897 sanctions imposed on Russia by the international community before and after February 24, the date on which the Kremlin launched its war intervention in Ukraine, according to the Castellum.AI portal, which collects updated information on Western restrictions, reports Efe. 

According to the preliminary estimate of the Central Bank of Russia (BCR) published on Friday in a statement, the dynamics of the current account was determined by the significant increase in the surplus in the balance of goods and services…”. 

The guy almost implies that this is Putin’s business. 

What is wrong with people who are not able to reflect on minimal issues, to read between the lines? 
Two statements: “…It is very hard for us, but we are moving forward…” – Zaluzhny on the current offensive (Chief of the Ukrainian Army). 

“…If consolidated, the Ukrainian advances will be the most significant since March. Ukraine has claimed a number of successes in the east and south of the country. If consolidated, those gains would be the most significant since the withdrawal of Russian troops from around Kiev in late March…” U.S. Secretary of State for Defense, Lloyd “Uncle Tom” Austin. 

The Cuban knows about baseball, there are many technical concepts, but there is one basic thing, beyond the 9 innings, because now there is the KO, or the extra inning, but there is something that does not change: when one team bats, the other receives, and vice versa, period, there is no third way, very much in vogue everywhere, but that will not happen in Cuba Well, the Ukrainians were in a defensive position, even worse, with a quarter of the territory controlled by the pro-Russian forces.  


There is a time out (demand of the parties, from the USA to the less fascist part of Europe), sit down and negotiate for two reasons: first, the Russians are imposing the rhythm, they are doing it slowly not for trying to be pleasant, but against us, they want to delay the matter until December 21, the official start of winter, but there are countries that already at the end of October begin to feel the inclemencies, note these words. They are demanding Ukraine to assume another rhythm than the inertia of the past, basically, they are forcing it, thinking that this way they can negotiate from a position of strength. 


They have not seen the map and have not learned about the current state of the Ukrainian economy, in 4 days, they have taken 3,000 km2 and possibly it will be 5,000 km2 or a little more. My calculations are that they have employed between 30,000 men, with a reserve that they approximated, and that has been hit. Why in those conditions the offensive has had such a big cost militarily in the Ukrainian ranks? Because the Russians let them come, that accumulation of forces is not done without being noticed, there are means, they have a limited artillery, the Russians placed themselves in positions in which they – the Ukrainians -, are not going to pass. 


Yesterday I told you, there are two borders, a natural one, the Donetsk River, and an administrative one. You can tell me that the administrative border is not important, but it can be important, if the Lugansk and Donetsk People’s Republic officially and legally declare war on Ukraine and Russia enters into an alliance with these two states recognized by Russia. 


But we are not there, for now. what are the Ukrainians going to do in the 3,000, 5,000 or 6,000 km2 they control now, well, now you move to the lower part of the Inning, the defensive one. what will the Ukrainians do in the face of a Russian offensive? will the USA and Europe, already into October-November, be in a position to provide support? 50,000 guys distributed in unproductive cities, waiting for the enemy to arrive without knowing which way to go, because it is one thing to attack and another to defend. The Russians made chirrin chirran, the Ukrainians who remained there, are pro-Ukrainian, less problems when it comes to attacks, don’t you think so? Because the pro-Russians, they went to safe places, or to Russia or to Lugansk. 


All this was foreseeable, the Russians listen, see, know, more than you can imagine, as a Cuban tells you, here they had the most important radio listening base of the USSR in the West. In addition to the Intelligence work within the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Read the following carefully: 


Operation Bagration (the great Soviet counteroffensive that was stopped in Berlin, when the one with the little mustache blew his brains out).  


This battle has been described as the triumph of the concept of military deception, based on complete disinformation of the adversary thanks to the complete coordination of all movements on the front and signal traffic in order to disorient the enemy about the real objective of the offensive. Despite the large number of forces deployed in front of Belarus, the Soviet forces managed to completely prevent the Germans from knowing where the offensive would be concentrated, until it was too late. The Soviets called this type of operation maskirovka, which in Russian literally means “camouflage”, “concealment” or “masking”. 


How is it that those red dots you see on the map are produced, they are produced from Russian-controlled territory, I am talking about today’s military activity. 


How much is the Ukrainian advance? 3,000, 5,000 or 6,000 km2, 5% of the Russian-controlled land in Ukraine. 


What does this advance mean? A different military dynamic, Ukrainian troops that will have to move to defensive positions. 


Why this advance? It is a demand of those who support Ukraine, both the USA and Europe, they want and believe, that Ukraine negotiates imposing its terms, and for that it must do it quickly.  


The question is not so much what Russia will do, they will do what they have to do in a timely manner, you have seen them, they don’t even bat an eyelid. The question is what will those people do now, they are forced to stay, they have suffered casualties like they never suffered before. If their Chief says “…It is very hard for us, but we are moving forward…” – Zaluzhny about the current offensive (Chief of the Ukrainian Army), it must be for a reason. What is really surprising and what makes the Ukrainians in Kiev suspicious are the minimal Russian casualties. I think they are going to study what is going on, because at the same time they are selling the idea that in the south they are still gaining tens of kilometers every day, and that is false.  


Russia does not start wars, it ends them. Today, is Russia closer to Kiev, or Ukraine to Moscow? If you have the answer, then we have an understanding. 


We will see the 26th again, 26 forever! 


  1. Interesting analysis. As I have said on the substack from the other day the losses the Ukrainians have suffered have been horrendous. This was all a big PR event to show that they are actually doing something.I would compare it to the Battle of the Bulge German offensive but at least the Germans had a plan to try to cut off the allies supplies from the coast. This Ukrainian offensive has just retaken some villages here and there that probably don't mean anything in the grand scheme of things.

    I will say I am disappointed that it seems the Kremlin has decided not to upgrade the "Special Military Operation" into the "Anti Terrorist Operation" or for them to just admit they are in a state of war with NATO. There are videos on the Internet of soldiers who sound like they are from the American south fighting for Ukraine. There are reports that there are many English speaking soldiers involved in the Kharkov offensive. It makes one wonder if there are American or British infantry units involved in this fight instead of just mercenaries.

  2. Yes, I only use Saker if a frontline report is offered. Not too long ago some of the best frontline sitreps were coming in. They've now disappeared. Excellent article, by the way. As a combat vet, those Russians not only play chess, their "ballet" skills are impressive.

  3. Thanks, I suppose you can call it a 'power play'. Something US forces would do on day one in shock & awe. Things are heating up. Top notch units and first rate mercs in the offensive being on exposed ground. 'At about 8 p.m. local time, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation launched missile strikes on the largest thermal power plants in eastern and central Ukraine. As a result several regions of Ukraine were left without water and electricity.

    According to the local reports, the Kharkiv CHPP-5 and Zmievskaya CHPP in the Kharkiv region, the Pavlograd CHPP-3 in the Dnipropetrovsk region, the Kremenchug thermal power plant in the Poltava region were hit but Russian missiles. The collapse of the general power system has spread to the networks of Kharkiv, Sumy, Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporozhye and Odessa regions. It also affected the areas of Donetsk regions controlled by the Ukrainian Armed Forces, the Kiev region and the capital of the country. The missiles were likely launched from the Black and Caspian Seas.

    Ukrainian president Zelensky confirmed that the Kharkiv and Donetsk regions (territories under the AFU control) were completely de-energized. The Zaporozhie, Dnepropetrovsk and Sumy partially suffered from the energy cut.'

  4. I do not consider Saker a reliable source, at one time they were but they got coopted just like everyone else, and for some reason they have not lost their credibility like everyone else. But me being a cowboy "I can smell a pig from a mile away," and I smell pork…

  5. Interesting perspective, guys, thanks for that. I'm not a military guy– well, not in the martial sense, anyway, wink wink– but it seems to me that, rather, the Russians knew this former Ukrainian 'attack' was coming and chose to let these brainwashed chumps flood the zone in order to eventually hit the Ukrainian forces with a massive counter attack.

    The Ukrainians are no longer in fortified defensive positions and their lines of communication to support the forward troops are now defined precisely for the Russians via satellite and 4ISR. They also know now just what the remnants of the UAF are capable of and how much support they're getting from US/UK.

    Jeez, I mean, they haven't even factored in Russia's total air dominance. That guarantees the EndGame since a week after this shit started. Sorry, but I'm reminded of a cat toying with a mouse before she kills it mercilessly. We've all seen that. And nothing about the strategic maps available suggests to me that the Russians are deploying in a panic.

    Anyway, Jack's right. This will be over when it's over and the outcome was never in any doubt. The only question really is: after Ukraine is done, what's next? Or more precisely, who's next! lmfao.

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